According to government officials, the construction of a 770 kilometer high-speed rail between Moscow and Kazan may become an anti-crisis solution, or at least is a lifeline for our resource-based economy. For the first time in Russia, an astronomical sum of RUB 1.07 trillion was disbursed for the implementation of a high-tech road project.
This topic has been one of the most discussed ones on the web from the very HSR-2 presentation. The project is quite harshly criticized and it seems that most of the comments are written by professional railwaymen. It cannot be said that the level of skepticism is extremely high, but at the same time, some doubts concerning economic and technical feasibility are based on strong arguments.
“HSR requires large capital investments, adequate elaboration and implementation of the project”, a forumer Fedor Pendolintsev wrote, “Otherwise there will be astronomical losses, which should be compensated somehow. It will be easier to run “Sapsan” trains on the existing railways 4 times a day and to cancel other trains during the day, thus making people ride high-speed trains. The costs for maintaining railway tracks should be spread over rest trains. It will be quite difficult to do the same for a separate line intended only for high-speed trains”.
After that, of course, the supporters of the road infrastructure modernization appeared."The Russian Railways network has 17.000 km of tracks beyond repair, and this is the length of the whole double-tracked Trans-Siberian railway. But what HSR we are talking about. At least, the existing ones should be knocked into shape”, a forumer Alexander Gubin noted “ ... the speed of cargo trains sharply raised on the Southern-Eastern Railroad, and now they move like those old crazy “Kuban” and “Sochi” trains. But still the average speed on a 85-km section for the cargo trains is 78 km/h including dispersal and braking - that is very cool, and the train is not empty".
In truth, there is some logic in the skepticism concerning the new project. Indeed, it is hard to deny the logic of the skeptics of the new project. The RUB 1.07 trillion which are planned to be allocated for building HSR-2, they could be spent to buy 5900 new electric locomotives or, more important, the complete modernization of 8.500 km of a single track railway line with increasing the average speed up to 160 km/h.
Never mind that the country would have received railways inferior to high-speed railways (with planned maximum speed of 250 km/h and more), because the modernization would have spread on many problem railway sections in Central and Southern Russia after all. Moreover, we have started manufacturing electric locomotive ÝÏ20 with the designed speed of 200 km/h, so there is no point worrying about sanction risks.
Of course, the popular "Sapsan" trains produced in German have a higher design speed of 350 km/h, but it was limited to 250 km/h upon the initiative of the Russian officials. By the way, in Germany, the trains also do not "fly". Thus the average speed of high-speed ICE trains is 160 km per hour, but on some sections, for example, on Cologne - Frankfurt am Main line the speed of trains reaches 230 km/h.
The Russian harsh climate with snowstorms, severe frost and ice rains should be taken into account, so the comparison of our operation conditions with Spanish, French or Chinese ones is not entirely correct. Meanwhile, in Finland which we can look up to, trains move at the speed of no more that 200 km/h.
Is should be noted that the increase in the trains movement is accompanied with the exponential growth in operating costs which are reflected in ticket price and have influence on the consumer appeal. For information, the price of the second class in high-speed trains from Beijing to Guangzhou (693 km) is 138 dollars which is more expensive than flights on the budget plane.
However, according to the Investment Memorandum of HSR-2, our tickets will be much cheaper than the Chinese ones - RUB 3,671 for the route "Moscow - Kazan". The ticket for train from Moscow to Nizhny Novgorod will cost RUB 1,952. Perhaps the price will grow but it will not be critical. And most importantly, the railway industry in Russia will finally step into the 21st
century.
The designers of the HSR-2 project claim that the railway line will be used not only for high-speed passenger trains (with acceptable speed of 350-400 km/h), but "night" passenger and Express trains (with the allowable speed of 250 km/h) as well. Furthermore, special trains for the transit of Chinese goods will be launched. In this scenario, the cumulative GDP growth during 2019-2030 will reach to RUB 7.9 trillion, and tax revenues to the budgets of all levels over the same period will be RUB 2.1 trillion.
As for the technical equipment, at the very beginning of the HSR-2 launch it will be necessary to buy 45 pairs of high-speed trains priced at EUR 25 million per train. To be fair, today there is a programme of import substitution in which the Ural Machine-Building Complex takes part. Moreover, according to Dietrich Moeller from Siemens, the German is ready to provide the 80 % localization in the assembly of at least 60 “Sapsan” trains. However, electric locomotives "Sinara" and "Granite" are already assembled from domestic parts for almost 100%, and the "Swallow" trains contain Russian parts for two-thirds.
If all goes according to plan, in May of this year Russia and China will conclude a Memorandum on the preparation of the concession agreement. Later, if the parties come to agreement, the concessionaire will be determined. According to the network schedule published in January 2016, the “tipping point” will be the approval of the Russian Government Act on the concession agreement which will be concluded with the PRC Government in the third quarter. This will be the start of the full range of procedures including seizure of land, tenders and the construction of the Moscow - Kazan HSR which is planned to be finished in 2020. Thus, in 2021 we can expect a start of operation of the railway.
From the point of view of the analysis of the HSR-2 project, the special attention should be paid "Assessment of environmental impact" (per section) and the “Construction project of "Moscow - Kazan" high-speed rail, the investment Memorandum". It seems like a great job was done including well-organized planning and technical support. Moreover, possible risks arising at the stage and in the process of the railway infrastructure construction were identified and analyzed.
An anonymous source at JSC “Russian Railways” said: "After a series of difficult and stressful projects including HSR-1 and the Olympic games in Sochi, it is probably the first time in new Russia, when a team of experts and managers who are capable to do this job step by step, was formed. They cannot be called as Gold Fund yet, but the Silver one they deserve. They have necessary competence, especially, it concerns the Ural Machine-Building Complex. The government also has well-functioning control mechanisms. As for the weaknesses which concern the violations of technical specifications and cost overrun, we know about them. Thus, if the phrase "whatever it takes” could be applied to everything which had been done before, now the HSR-2 became something like economic Stalingrad. And if we fulfill the project, the construction of high speed roads may become our strong point like nuclear energy and military-industrial complex".
In other words, if the construction of HSR-2 will be conducted strictly according to plan and the estimate, we can count on the beginning of the structural reforms about which we have heard a lot for the last years. The success of the project will influence not only the GDP growth but the technological image of the country as well.
